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A fast-moving winter storm blanketed much of the Northeast in white this weekend, bringing the first significant snowfall of the season to New York City, Boston, and Philadelphia. If the wintry scenes have you dreaming of a white Christmas, well…just don’t shoot the messenger.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting a return to above-normal temperatures across the vast majority of the U.S. during the week of Christmas, as you can see in the map below. The only areas likely to see near-normal or below-normal temperatures next week are the northernmost portions of the West, Midwest, and Northeast. This is a significant departure from the December weather much of the U.S. has seen so far.
It’s important to note that this map does not predict the actual temperature. Rather, it predicts the likelihood of near-normal (gray), above-normal (red), or below-normal (blue) temperatures over a given period. The darker the color on the map, the higher the chances of that location falling into that category.
For many parts of the U.S., December got off to a frigid start. A wobbly polar vortex sent back-to-back Arctic blasts plunging south, fueling a clipper storm that dumped several inches of snow across the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes, and parts of the Northeast during the first week of the month.
Arctic air and snowstorms continued to affect wide swaths of the country last week. On Tuesday, an atmospheric river slammed into the Pacific Northwest, causing catastrophic flooding in Washington, Oregon, and British Columbia. That plume of moisture supercharged two consecutive clipper storms that brought more snow to the Midwest and Northeast over the weekend.
Overnight windchill temperatures plummeted below zero, and 63 million Americans were under cold weather advisories on Sunday, CBS News reported. As of Monday morning, cold-related advisories, watches, and warnings were still in effect as far south as the Gulf Coast states. As the week progresses, this pattern will begin to shift.
According to the National Weather Service, lake effect snow should begin to wrap up across the Great Lakes region by Monday evening, but temperatures will remain below average across the eastern U.S. overnight. This is likely the last of the frigid conditions for a little while.
“The upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast will likely remain vulnerable to occasional shots of arctic air from western Canada, with one in particular forecast again for late this week,” meteorologist Alan Gerard reported Sunday. “Overall, though, the trend certainly seems to be toward a warmer pattern for much of the country heading into Christmas.”
Western states, which have trended warmer than the East so far this December, will see more record-warm temperatures this week, according to Gerard. This warmth will gradually expand eastward over the next several days.
That means the chances of a white Christmas are dwindling, though it’s still too soon to say exactly what holiday conditions will look like in your neck of the woods. Based on the CPC outlook, the further north you live, the better your chances of seeing snow on Christmas Day.
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